Nigeria’s Economy To Grow By 4.7% – Edun Says Many States Recorded Budget Surpluses In 2025
By Taiye Olayemi
Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Mr Wale Edun,
says the economy is projected to grow 4.68 per cent in 2026 as the government
drives investment-led, inclusive growth aimed at creating jobs and boosting
citizens’ welfare.
Edun made the remarks on Thursday in Lagos while delivering the keynote address
at the launch of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) Macroeconomic
Outlook Report for 2026.
He said the growth projection aligns with the government’s medium-term goal of
achieving seven per cent annual growth and building a one-trillion-dollar economy
by the end of the decade.
According to him, the economy in 2026 is projected to grow at 4.68 per cent,
consistent with our path to seven per cent growth per annum and a one-trillion
dollar economy by 2030, and projected average inflation at 16.5 per cent and the
exchange rate at about N1,400 per dollar.
“For inflation, as we have said, we need to get into simple figures. It is expected to
average 16.5 per cent and the exchange rate, N1,400 per dollar,” he said.
Edun noted that the 2026 budget, titled “Budget of Consolidation, Renewed
Resilience and Shared Prosperity,” reflects President Bola Tinubu’s commitment to
ensuring that macroeconomic improvements translate into real gains in Nigerians’
daily lives.
“It is not about the metrics or the percentages; it is about the lived experience of
Nigerians in terms of electricity supply, food availability and improved welfare,”
he said, adding that the budget deficit, estimated at about four per cent of Gross
Domestic Product (GDP), reflected the scale of Nigeria’s development needs and
the ambition to accelerate growth.
Edun, therefore, emphasised that following the removal of distortions and recent
stabilisation measures, the focus of economic policy had shifted to driving growth
through increased investment.
“Ongoing investments in digital infrastructure, including the rollout of over 90,000
kilometres of fibre optic cables in collaboration with the World Bank and the
Ministry of Communications are part of efforts to empower young Nigerians and
support technology-driven growth,” he said.
The minister said the reform programme was anchored on four objectives which
include: consolidating macroeconomic stability, improving the business and
investment climate, strengthening human capital while protecting the vulnerable
through social protection, and stimulating broad-based economic growth.
On fiscal performance, Edun said that even with shortfalls in oil and gas revenues
compared to budgeted levels, the Federal Government prioritised fiscal federalism,
transparency, and accountability in managing the federation account.
“This ensured that funds due to states and sub-national governments were fully
disbursed, significantly strengthening their financial positions,” he said, and added
that many states recorded budget surpluses of about three per cent, enabling
increased spending on health, education, public services, and other social and
economic priorities.
Edun also highlighted that the Federal Government demonstrated fiscal discipline
by extending the 2024 budget to ensure the completion of priority capital projects.
“Aggregate capital expenditure in 2024 stood at about N11.1 trillion, representing
an 85 per cent performance, reflecting the administration’s emphasis on completing
ongoing projects,” the minister explained.
He said all statutory obligations, including foreign and domestic debt servicing as
well as salary payments, were fully met.
“These outcomes underscore a strong commitment to transparency, structural
reform and fiscal discipline, as well as laying the foundation for rapid, sustained
and inclusive growth,” Edun added.
He noted the government’s long-term growth target of seven per cent was aimed at
outpacing population growth and lifting millions of Nigerians out of poverty.
The minister explained that reducing reliance on debt was a key fiscal priority, with
renewed emphasis on boosting government revenue through digitalisation, central
billing systems, and improved reconciliation processes to block leakages.
“The introduction of a central billing and receipt system would enhance
transparency by tracking assessments and payments in real time across government
agencies,” he said.
Edun also highlighted the implementation of a new tax law designed to be pro-
poor, broaden the tax base, simplify compliance, and exempt essential goods, food
items, and small businesses.
He said President Tinubu’s strategic vision was to build a resilient, diversified, and
globally competitive economy, leveraging exchange rate stability and expanded
trade opportunities under ECOWAS and the African Continental Free Trade Area.
Edun identified key priorities for 2026 to include improving competitiveness
through sound governance, boosting agricultural productivity and food security,
accelerating infrastructure and energy development, and investing in human
capital.
He acknowledged constraints in global concessional financing and said Nigeria
must increasingly rely on domestic resource mobilisation and private sector
investment to fund development.
Edun urged Nigerians at home and in the diaspora to take advantage of improved
macroeconomic conditions to invest in the economy.
“The private sector is indispensable to sustaining growth,” he said.
Edun said although the task ahead was challenging, the Federal Government
remained resolute in translating economic stability into inclusive, job-rich growth.
“We remain committed to delivering tangible benefits to the average Nigerian,” he
stressed.
